A ceasefire has just been signed between the United States, Iran, and Israel around the Strait of Hormuz. It was supposed to end a crisis. Yet, almost immediately, it has become one of its main focal points. Negotiations are underway, while accusations of violating the terms of those negotiations are already flying. The reopening of a strait is announced, yet its transit conditions are still being debated. The strikes stop, but the war does not disappear—it simply changes its vocabulary.

Clausewitz famously stated that war is the continuation of politics by other means. Still, one must look at which politics are actually continuing: the politics of press releases, or the politics of stocks, flows, access, and thresholds that each actor silently defends.

A two-part analysis by Jérôme Denariez. In this first installment, Jérôme Denariez deciphers the sequence through an unprecedented framework: stocks, flows, access, and thresholds. He demonstrates why China, despite its apparent withdrawal, might emerge as the most decisive player.