European-Security.com

Putin and the Kremlin’s new strategy: In this chilling prospective analysis set in early 2026, Françoise Thom dissects the Kremlin's survival strategy facing the new geopolitical reality imposed by the return of Donald Trump. While the American president sparks a major crisis by seeking to annex Greenland, Putin is playing a perverse double game. On one hand, he supports Trump’s imperial ambitions to validate the principle that "might makes right" and, through a mirror effect, legitimize his own conquests in Ukraine. On the other, his propagandists are executing a 180-degree turn: yesterday’s fierce critics of Western rules are now posing as hypocritical defenders of international law to seduce a stunned Europe and pry it away from the American orbit.

However, hiding behind this diplomatic offensive is a desperate Russia whose economy is collapsing and which is selling off its resources to China to bankroll its war. The historian demonstrates that Putin is locked in a race against the clock: he must crush Ukraine quickly to then vassalize European elites by exploiting their rejection of Trump. The conclusion is unequivocal: faced with this trap, Europe must choose neither the plague nor the cholera, but stand united against the "two gangsters" by continuing to support Kyiv.

Europa vor der strategischen Einsamkeit: Um die unerbittliche Feststellung von Françoise Thom fortzuführen, scheint es, dass Europa während der Gipfeltreffen in Davos und Brüssel endlich die existenzielle Dringlichkeit des Augenblicks begriffen hat. Die übliche Schüchternheit ist einer ungeahnten Festigkeit gewichen: Angesichts der neuen Zolldrohungen aus Washington zögerten die Europäer nicht, die „Bazooka“ der Handelsvergeltung zu erwähnen. Dieser psychologische Bruch kristallisierte sich in den meisterhaften Interventionen von Emmanuel Macron und dem Kanadier Mark Carney – der mit Standing Ovations bedacht wurde – heraus, die an der Seite eines in seiner Würde unversehrten Selenskyj das Ende der atlantischen Illusion besiegelten.

Es ist an der Zeit, der Realität ins Auge zu sehen: Das transatlantische Band wird nicht wiederauferstehen. Donald Trump hat seine Wahl getroffen, nämlich auf Wladimir Putin zu setzen, um die alte Ordnung zu demontieren. Als Antwort darauf kann sich Europa nicht mehr damit begnügen, Zuschauer zu sein; es muss diese strategische Einsamkeit akzeptieren.
Wie Françoise Thom darlegt, ist es keine diplomatische Option mehr, den beiden „Gangstern“ gleichzeitig die Stirn zu bieten, sondern die strikte Bedingung für das Überleben des Kontinents.

Putin and the Kremlin’s new strategy: In this chilling prospective analysis set in early 2026, Françoise Thom dissects the Kremlin's survival strategy facing the new geopolitical reality imposed by the return of Donald Trump. While the American president sparks a major crisis by seeking to annex Greenland, Putin is playing a perverse double game. On one hand, he supports Trump’s imperial ambitions to validate the principle that "might makes right" and, through a mirror effect, legitimize his own conquests in Ukraine. On the other, his propagandists are executing a 180-degree turn: yesterday’s fierce critics of Western rules are now posing as hypocritical defenders of international law to seduce a stunned Europe and pry it away from the American orbit.

However, hiding behind this diplomatic offensive is a desperate Russia whose economy is collapsing and which is selling off its resources to China to bankroll its war. The historian demonstrates that Putin is locked in a race against the clock: he must crush Ukraine quickly to then vassalize European elites by exploiting their rejection of Trump. The conclusion is unequivocal: faced with this trap, Europe must choose neither the plague nor the cholera, but stand united against the "two gangsters" by continuing to support Kyiv. — Ed. Note

Europe Facing Strategic Solitude : To extend Françoise Thom’s unsparing diagnosis, it seems that Europe, during the Davos and Brussels summits, has finally grasped the existential urgency of the moment. Usual timidity has given way to unprecedented firmness: in the face of new tariff threats from Washington, Europeans did not hesitate to invoke the "bazooka" of trade retaliation. This psychological shift crystallized in the masterful interventions of Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Mark Carney—who received a standing ovation—who, alongside a Zelensky with his dignity intact, marked the end of the Atlanticist illusion. It is time to face reality: the transatlantic bond will not be resurrected.

Donald Trump has made his choice: to bet on Vladimir Putin to dismantle the old order. In response, Europe can no longer settle for being a spectator; it must accept this strategic solitude. As the historian demonstrates, standing up to both "gangsters" simultaneously is no longer just a diplomatic option, but the strict condition for the continent's survival.

В этом леденящем душу прогностическом анализе начала 2026 года Франсуаза Том разбирает стратегию выживания Кремля перед лицом новой геополитической реальности, навязанной возвращением Дональда Трампа. В то время как американский президент провоцирует крупный кризис, желая аннексировать Гренландию, Путин ведет извращенную двойную игру. С одной стороны, он поддерживает имперские амбиции Трампа, чтобы утвердить «право сильного» и зеркально легитимизировать свои собственные завоевания в Украине. С другой стороны, его пропагандисты совершают разворот на 180 градусов: вчерашние хулители западных правил теперь выступают лицемерными защитниками международного права, чтобы соблазнить парализованную страхом Европу и вырвать ее из американской орбиты.

Однако за этим дипломатическим наступлением скрывается загнанная в угол Россия, чья экономика рушится и которая распродает свои ресурсы Китаю, чтобы финансировать войну. Историк доказывает, что Путин участвует в гонке со временем: он должен быстро раздавить Украину, чтобы затем вассализировать европейские элиты, играя на их неприятии Трампа. Вывод однозначен: перед лицом этой ловушки Европа не должна выбирать между чумой и холерой, но обязана сплотиться против «двух гангстеров», продолжая поддерживать Киев.